In Utah’s Republican primary today, Mitt Romney is probably going to win overwhelmingly. People will chalk that up to Mormons voting for a Mormon candidate, and while there is probably some of that going on, I don’t think it’s quite so simple.
The Utah Republicans I know tend to be fairly orthodox in their positions on national issues–they tend to follow the party line. (I’m sure there are various things things that could be said about such a trend: that it might be due to the LDS Church’s insistence on religious orthodoxy, etc., etc., but that’s not really relevant to the point I’m making.)
Of the major candidates throughout the Republican primary, only two campaigned as orthodox Republicans: Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Giuliani is staunchly pro-choice on abortion, McCain loves his image as a maverick Republican, and Huckabee’s economic populism is clearly outside the Republican mainstream.
Granted, Romney’s positions during the Presidential campaign are different from positions he held in the past. Many people see that as a sign of insincerity on his part, accusing him of shifting his positions in order to match up to the Republican mainstream. Be that as it may, his current positions are, in fact, the orthodox Republican positions.
Although I’ve been supporting Romney’s candidacy for about a year, if Fred Thompson were still in the race and I felt he had a better chance of beating McCain to win the nomination, I would have voted for Thompson today. I could have enthusiastically supported Thompson if he were the Republican nominee. I cannot say that about McCain or Huckabee. (More on Huckabee in a minute.)
Since Thompson exited the race, orthodox Republicans have only one candidate who matches up with them on the issues: Romney. Now, I can understand how some orthodox Republicans might have doubts about the seriousness of his conversion to their principles, and that they might therefore go with other candidates. I think it’s here that religion does come into play, with Mormons more likely to give Romney the benefit of the doubt because he is Mormon. (Mormons believe in true conversions, after all–that’s why we send out missionaries.)
Ultimately, I think it’s the orthodoxy of Republican Mormons and the unorthodoxy of the alternative candidates that results Romney getting a higher percentage of the vote from Mormon Republicans than Obama is getting from black Democrats or Clinton is getting from female Democrats.
I do want to say something about Huckabee as a candidate. Huckabee is a Southern Baptist, and I have no problem voting for a Southern Baptist, despite the fact that many Southern Baptists consider Mormonism a cult. I could easily support a Southern Baptist (or a Catholic, a Muslim, a Hindu, a Sikh, a Jew, or an atheist) with whom I agreed on most policy issues.
I have several disagreements with Huckabee on the issues, just as I do with McCain.
If McCain is the Republican nominee, I will vote for him in November (with one exception.) Despite my policy disagreements with him, I prefer him to the Democrats.
If Huckabee were to gain the nomination, however, I would not vote for him. Nor will I vote for McCain if Huckabee is on the ticket with him. I’d be willing to overlook my policy disagreements with Huckabee, just as I am willing to do with McCain, but Huckabee’s deliberate use of anti-Mormon bigotry in this campaign is something I will not support in any way.
My refusal to vote for Huckabee is unlikely to affect the election. It is merely a symbolic gesture on my part.