Forty days ago, I explained why I would be voting for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate for President. Now, I’m going to explain why I’ve changed my mind.
On the issues, ISideWith.com shows I agree with McMullin (97%) about the same percentage as I do with Johnson (96%). I still think Johnson’s experience counts in his favor, but at this point it’s become clear that he’s not going to be competitive in Utah. He’s actually fallen in the polls over the past month. Meanwhile, McMullin is doing far better than I expected, with the latest poll putting him in second place, just 1% behind Trump (and 1% ahead of Clinton).
Now, it’s possible to envision an elaborate scenario in which McMullin wins Utah, neither Trump nor Clinton get 270 electoral college votes, and McMullin is chosen as president by the House of Representatives. The political science major in me would love to see that happen.
Realistically, though, there’s currently about an 85% chance Hillary Clinton will win the election. Nothing that happens in Utah, including a McMullin victory, is likely to make a difference to the outcome of this election.
But a McMullin victory would send a clear message to the Republican Party that Donald Trump was an unacceptable candidate, and hopefully the party will get the message and implement changes to their nomination process in order to avoid a repeat of this year’s fiasco.